Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3159
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3159 · ONT → PHX
departs 6:30 PM PT · arrives 7:50 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at PHX that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.