Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3164 · ONT → SJC
departs 7:55 PM PT · arrives 9:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 27%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SJC at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.