Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3183
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3183 · ORF → BWI
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Thu 10/1 5%
Fri 10/2 5%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 3%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.