Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3189
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3189 · PBI → BWI
departs 7:10 AM ET · arrives 9:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 6%
Mon 10/5 4%
Fri 10/9 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PBI that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from PBI are usually not late
Weather at each end
PBI (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.71 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.