Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3240
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3240 · MCO → AUS
departs 10:10 AM ET · arrives 11:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 13%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.