Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3426 LANDED 2:04 AM PT, ~1 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 3426 · MDW → LAS

took off 12:44 AM CT · landed 2:04 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 20h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3426 · MDW → LAS

Odds over time