Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3451 · MCO → PIT
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 6:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.