Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3463
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3463 · RSW → BWI
departs 7:05 AM ET · arrives 9:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 8%
Mon 10/5 5%
Fri 10/9 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
3%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from RSW are usually not late
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.