WN 3495 · SJC → BWI

took off 9:40 AM PT · expected to land 5:19 PM ET (scheduled 9:27 AM PT → 5:44 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ BWI is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ 9am departures from SJC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3495 · SJC → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?