Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 3501 · PHX → SMF
departs 8:50 PM MT · arrives 10:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.