Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3526
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3526 · TPA → SAN
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 7:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.