Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3539
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3539 · PHX → RDU
departs 4:40 PM MT · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at PHX that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.