Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3541 · SAN → SJC
departs 5:15 PM PT · arrives 6:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 46%
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.