Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3543
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3543 · BWI → JAX
departs 7:35 PM ET · arrives 9:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±1 pts
+22 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
10%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
7pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.09 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 3.92 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.