Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3544
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3544 · SAN → SMF
departs 6:30 AM PT · arrives 8:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.