Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3558 LANDED 6:28 AM PT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 3558 · OAK → LAS

took off 5:23 AM PT · landed 6:28 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Saturdays in October are usually busier than average

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3558 · OAK → LAS

Odds over time