Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 3581 · BWI → ABQ
departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 9:50 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.10 in
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.