Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3624
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3624 · AUS → CVG
departs 3:00 PM CT · arrives 6:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
CVG usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.28 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,267 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.