Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3653 · SFO → SAN
departs 9:05 PM PT · arrives 10:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 58% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SFO that day
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.