Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3659
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3659 · RDU → MCO
departs 10:30 AM ET · arrives 12:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
10am departures from RDU are usually not late
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.