Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3678
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3678 · TPA → BWI
departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 10:20 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.