Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3724
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3724 · SJU → MCO
departs 12:25 PM AT · arrives 3:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
SJU usually runs smoothly
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 8,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.