Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3731 · SJU → TPA
departs 7:55 PM AT · arrives 11:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SJU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.