Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3758
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3758 · SMF → AUS
departs 5:20 AM PT · arrives 10:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Other factors
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.