Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3793 LANDED 10:55 AM CT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 3793 · BUF → BNA

took off 10:15 AM ET · landed 10:55 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BNA that day

↑ BNA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3793 · BUF → BNA

Odds over time