Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3811 · MYR → HOU
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 4:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MYR that day
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
MYR usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MYR (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.