Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3820 · SAN → SJC
departs 2:15 PM PT · arrives 3:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.