Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 3841 · BDL → TPA
departs 3:40 PM ET · arrives 6:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL
↓
BDL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
BDL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 10,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.