WN 3843 · BWI → MHT

took off 10:54 AM ET · expected to land 11:56 AM ET (scheduled 10:44 AM ET → 12:20 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MHT?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ BWI is busy at that time

↑ BWI is prone to delays

↑ Saturdays in October are usually busier than average

↓ MHT usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into MHT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.07 in

MHT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3843 · BWI → MHT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MHT?