Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3870 · SNA → SMF
departs 2:15 PM PT · arrives 3:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
2pm departures from SNA are often late
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.