Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3889 LANDED 11:28 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 3889 · PHX → AUS

took off 7:41 PM MT · landed 11:28 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±3 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3889 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time