Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3897
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3897 · STL → BWI
departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.