Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3933
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3933 · STL → JAX
departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 9:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.