Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 3946 · JAX → BWI
departs 12:05 PM ET · arrives 1:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
↑
Other factors
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.59 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.