WN 3967 · SMF → SAN

departs 1:40 PM PT · arrives 3:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3967 · SMF → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?