Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3981 · STL → SEA
departs 12:05 PM CT · arrives 2:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/1 25%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.