WN 3982 · SMF → SNA

took off 6:35 PM PT · landed 7:42 PM PT (scheduled 6:13 PM PT → 7:49 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3982 · SMF → SNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SNA?