Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3985
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3985 · STL → TPA
departs 5:05 AM CT · arrives 8:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 3%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 2%
Mon 10/5 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.3d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.