Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4018
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4018 · TPA → DEN
departs 5:15 AM ET · arrives 6:55 AM MT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.3d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Other factors
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from TPA are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.