Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4022
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4022 · TPA → FLL
departs 2:50 PM ET · arrives 3:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1 66%
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
FLL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.