Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4023
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4023 · TPA → HOU
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Fri 10/2 7%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 3%
Wed 10/7 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from TPA are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.