Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4029 LANDED 6:44 AM ET, ~1 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4029 · RDU → BWI

took off 6:02 AM ET · landed 6:44 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at RDU that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

BWI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4029 · RDU → BWI

Odds over time