Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4034
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4034 · TPA → MDW
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 7:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.