Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4052
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4052 · MCO → HOU
departs 9:55 PM ET · arrives 11:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±1 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 36 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
9pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.