Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4058
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4058 · MCO → SMF
departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 8:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.