Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4061 LANDED 12:17 PM ET, ~1 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4061 · MCO → ISP

took off 10:08 AM ET · landed 12:17 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ ISP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

ISP (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4061 · MCO → ISP

Odds over time