Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4085
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4085 · RSW → MDW
departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.