Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4092 LANDED 5:11 PM ET, ~21 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4092 · STL → MCO

took off 1:55 PM CT · landed 5:11 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from STL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4092 · STL → MCO

Odds over time