Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4097
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4097 · SRQ → CMH
departs 12:35 PM ET · arrives 2:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day
↑
12pm departures from SRQ are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.