Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4101 LANDED 12:32 PM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4101 · BNA → RIC

took off 10:20 AM CT · landed 12:32 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at RIC that day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ BNA is busy at that time

↓ RIC usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling360 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4101 · BNA → RIC

Odds over time